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Warrants Implied Volatility
周二（25日）恒指弱勢依舊連跌三天，並且失守了250天綫，日内低位曾逼近19500點，若進一步向下觀望，恒指下一尚未回補的上升裂口位於3月21至22日，裂口區間在約19200至19400點水平。而參考恒指牛熊證街貨分佈，截至上日牛熊街貨比例為61.1:38.9，今日（26日）大市從低位19520點展開反彈，一度重上250天綫約19700點水平之上。 投資者如看好恒指，或可留意恒指購29262，行使價21000點，實際槓桿19.5 倍，換股比率7000 兌 1，2023年06月29日到期；但參考上日恒指牛熊證街貨分佈，20300至20399點收回區間熊證獲顯著加倉，相關對冲期指合約張數逾600張，投資者如繼續看淡，或可留意恒指沽11290，行使價18600點，實際槓桿14.1 倍，換股比率8800 兌 1，2023年06月29日到期。
科網股表現疲軟，截至上日恒科指及阿里巴巴（9988）皆連續6日收跌，阿里6日累計跌幅接近12%，股價回補3月28至29日的大型上升裂口。今日股價低位暫見81.25元，之後隨大市收窄跌幅，日内高位曾升穿84元。 投資者如看好阿里，或可留意阿里購23990，行使價95元，實際槓桿5.6倍，換股比率100 兌 1，2023年09月29日到期；如看淡，或可留意阿里沽26680，行使價62.88元，實際槓桿5倍，換股比率50 兌 1，2023年09月28日到期。
美團（3690）周二未能於50天綫站穩，走勢顯著受壓，日内最多曾跌近6%至129.5元，股價暫仍然位於自2月中至今形成的上落區間約125至145元。今日隨大市反彈，高位暫報135.7元。整體技術走勢上，美團上落波幅有逐漸收窄之勢，股價向三角形中綫約135元位置靠攏，方向待變。上日輪場美團好倉資金流入逾1100萬元，樂觀/悲觀比例為73:27。 投資者如看好美團，或可留意美團牛54122，收回價120元，槓桿比率6.6 倍，換股比率500 兌 1，2024年02月01日到期；如看淡，或可留意美團熊59988，收回價147元，槓桿比率8.7 倍，換股比率500 兌 1，2024年01月02日到期。
恒指在4月13日幾近回補了3月尾的上升裂口，總體上整固了近半個月後，大市上日（17日）終於小有突破，隨内地A股上揚，恒指10天綫正式從下方升穿50天綫，並曾升穿20800點位置，見今個月高位。今日（18日）小幅調整。截至上日，恒指牛熊證街貨比例為57.3:42.7，距離上日收市水平20782點上下1000點區間的牛熊證街貨比例則為35.9:64.1。 投資者如看好恒指，或可留意恒指牛60349，收回價20250點，槓桿比率45.7倍，換股比率10000 兌 1，2024年11月28日到期；如看淡，或可留意恒指熊54245，收回價21250點，槓桿比率34.5 倍，換股比率10000 兌 1，2024年11月28日到期。
近期走勢疲軟的美團（3690）上日從逼近區間低位水平展開反彈，全日急升近半成，上試10天綫（現約於135元水平），今日仍於10天綫位置爭持，上日市場美團Call輪有逾1100萬元資金追入，截至上日購沽街貨比例為9:1。 投資者如看好美團，或可留意美團購15852，行使價180元，實際槓桿5.1 倍，換股比率100 兌 1，2023年10月30日到期；如看淡，或可留意美團沽28840，行使價122.78元，實際槓桿5.1 倍，換股比率100 兌 1，2023年07月28日到期。
百度（9888）股價從三月尾高位瀉逾一成半，上日進一步逼近下方250天綫後，日内從低位127.2元展開反彈。今日繼續嘗試於130元（或100天綫）站穩。上日百度輪證樂/悲觀資金比例為92:8。 投資者如看好百度，或可留意百度牛59966，收回價115.5元，槓桿比率6.7 倍，換股比率500 兌 1，2024年04月02日到期；如看淡，或可留意百度熊59968，收回價154.2元，槓桿比率4.8倍，換股比率500 兌 1，2024年01月02日到期。
周三晚，瑞信債券的一年期信貸違約掉期（CDS）飈升至過千點子，顯示投資者對其前景相當憂慮。瑞信ADR美股曾跌超過3成，但其後獲瑞士央行支持後跌幅收窄至不足13.9%。受事件影響，恒指夜期急插，港股周四（16日）承接外圍低開，重磅金融股拖累指數一度跌逾430點，曾見19109點低位。瑞士央行擬向瑞信提供最多500億瑞郎借款的消息傳出後，市場恐慌情緒略舒緩，指數跌幅一度收窄，但整體仍於19200點附近水平窄幅整固，100天綫得而復失。
儘管外圍及港股大市回落，美團（3690）周四股價表現硬净，中段最多曾跌近2%見124.2元低位後隨即反彈，一度轉升2.2%重新逼近130元水平。回顧2023年以來，美團股價自今年高位195.6元回吐超過35%至上周五（3月10日）見今年低位122.1元，跌浪長達3個月，重返去年10月下旬附近低位，本周似乎暫見喘定。輪場資金上日以樂觀情緒資金較多，佔比接近七成，認購證街貨佔比更高達90%。投資者如看好美團，或可留意美團購14245，行使價140.1點，實際槓桿6 倍，換股比率100 兌 1，2023年06月29日到期；如看淡，或可留意美團沽28840，行使價122.78點，實際槓桿3.9 倍，換股比率100 兌 1，2023年07月28日到期。
螞蟻集團宣布近日與榮耀終端有限公司達成戰略合作，雙方將在數字化經營、支付創新、安全科技、數字金融、ESG可持續發展五大領域展開全面開放合作。阿里（9988）周二（14日）一度跌穿80元心理關口，但暫時可以喘定，連續5個交易日於此水平窄幅整固。投資者如看好阿里，或可趁低留意阿里購11679，行使價108.1元，實際槓桿8.3 倍，換股比率50 兌 1，2023年06月29日到期；相反，如看淡，或可留意阿里沽26680，行使價62.88元，實際槓桿4.1 倍，換股比率50 兌 1，2023年09月28日到期。
上日為期指結算日，恒指走勢反復，日内低位逼近19800點水平，試探250天綫，日内雖曾獲短暫承接輕微反彈，但未能站穩於兩萬點關之上。今早，恒指高開逾百點，再度上試兩萬點水平，整體趨勢暫未脫離上月尾向下延伸的短期下降通道。 投資者如看好恒指，或可留意恒指牛53915，收回價19750點，槓桿比率47.7 倍，換股比率10000 兌 1，2023年07月28日到期；如看淡，或可留意恒指熊54247，收回價20500點，槓桿比率40.1 倍，換股比率10000 兌 1，2024年11月28日到期。
先前傳出因材料問題，而遭日本取消銷售電動巴士的比亞迪（1211），最新傳出降價消息，雖然其後遭官方否認，指僅為經銷商促銷活動，不過周一股價表現仍落後大市，失守上周整固多日的50天綫水平。今早進一步受壓，曾低見210元。 投資者如看好比迪，或可留意比迪牛69573，收回價194元，槓桿比率8 倍，換股比率500 兌 1，2023年07月28日到期；如看淡，或可留意比迪沽26678，行使價167.78元，實際槓桿6.8 倍，換股比率100 兌 1，2023年05月30日到期。
近期股價偏弱的美團（3690）上周14天RSI逼近超賣區，上日股價逆市反彈，今早亦承接日前升勢進一步反彈，但暫仍未突破月初至今的10天綫阻力。消息面方面，美團無人機配送服務通過民航局運行審定。 投資者如看好美團，或可留意美團購27016，行使價160.1元，實際槓桿6.6 倍，換股比率100 兌 1，2023年05月30日到期；如看淡，或可留意美團沽28840，行使價122.78元，實際槓桿3.8 倍，換股比率100 兌 1，2023年07月28日到期。
上周四至本周一恒指連跌三日，20天綫水平失守，上日（周二）略微靠穩，衝高290點至約21500點水平回落，升幅收窄，技術走勢上50天綫剛好升穿250天綫。今早 ，恒指維持於約21300點水平附近好淡爭持。 投資者如看好恒指，或可留意恒指牛69687，收回價20500點，槓桿比率23.4 倍，換股比率10000 兌 1，2025年12月30日到期；如看淡，或可留意恒指熊52151，收回價22000點，槓桿比率25 倍，換股比率10000 兌 1，2025年12月30日到期。
美團（3690）今早（2月8日）股價低開近3%後，跌幅擴大，一度急瀉逾9%，失守上月區間低位159元位置。有報導指字節跳動旗下抖音將於3月上線全國外賣服務，不過其後遭抖音方面否認。花旗認爲市場關注美團或面臨抖音競爭，但仍決定開啟90天正面催化觀察。 投資者如看好美團，或可留意美團購28838，行使價188.98元，實際槓桿8.6 倍，換股比率100 兌 1，2023年04月27日到期；如看淡，或可留意美團沽28840，行使價122.78元，實際槓桿3.3 倍，換股比率100 兌 1，2023年07月28日到期。
滙豐上月股價節節上升，在到達約58元水平後升勢有所放緩，上周五回試20天綫水平獲承接。今早回復升勢，再上試58元水平，一度升約2.7%。花旗2月6日發報告指，香港銀行股年初至今上升了14%，主要受到內地更廣泛重新開放所支持。由於估值更為吸引，加上資本回報上升空間及盈利能力改善，滙豐股價表現跑贏本地同業。花旗繼續視滙豐為行業首選，認為集團今年將提供更好的資本回報上行空間，並有強勁盈利增長，將其股份目標價由52.8港元上調至62.9港元。 投資者如看好滙豐，或可留意滙豐購12404，行使價65.88元，實際槓桿14 倍，換股比率10 兌 1，2023年07月28日到期；如看淡，或可留意滙豐沽12406，行使價50元，實際槓桿6.9 倍，換股比率10 兌 1，2023年07月28日到期。
恒指上周大部份時間雖然於21500點水平受阻，但上周五（13日）尾段跟隨内地A股轉勢走强，直至上周五收市，恒指見約6個月高位，全周升逾700點。而今早（16日），恒指承接外圍升勢進一步向上，截至早上11時，曾升穿21900點水平，逐漸接近去年3月份下跌裂口位置，去年恒指兩次反彈升浪均受限於該裂口上方約22500點水平。 投資者如看好恒指，或可留意恒指購11798，行使價23800點，實際槓桿9 倍，換股比率6300 兌 1，2023年08月30日到期。
相反，如看淡恒指，或可留意恒指沽11797，行使價20000點，實際槓桿7.3 倍，換股比率10000 兌 1，2023年06月29日到期；如欲以更高槓桿產品部署指數淡倉，亦可留意恒指熊66205，收回價22500點，槓桿比率25.9倍，換股比率2000 兌 1，2025年04月29日到期。
美團（3690）走勢繼續落後大市及其他大型科網股，回到牛熊分界綫之下後，今早（16日）接連跌穿200天綫位置，及50天綫約165元水平，根據CitiFirst網站過去5日樂觀/悲觀情緒資金流資料，過去5天輪場樂觀悲觀資金比例逼近8:2，樂觀資金流合計錄得逾2億。 投資者如看好美團，或可留意美團牛69574，收回價155元，槓桿比率11.3 倍，換股比率500 兌 1，2023年09月28日到期；如看淡，或可留意美團熊69244，收回價190元，槓桿比率5.9 倍，換股比率500 兌 1，2023年12月28日到期。
自踏入2023年1月以來，滙豐（0005）股價未曾收跌，累計升逾1成，並留下多個上升裂口，截至今日（16日）中午收市，14天RSI已到達約89水平，技術上已深入超買區，見去年2月以來高位。 投資者如看好滙豐，或可留意滙豐購15875，行使價62.88元，實際槓桿17.4 倍，換股比率10 兌 1，2023年03月30日到期；如看淡，或可留意滙豐沽11678，行使價41.95元，實際槓桿9 倍，換股比率10 兌 1，2023年06月01日到期。
恒指去年12月於二萬點關口附近徘徊近一個月後，2023年迎來開門紅，連升第四個交易日，接連升穿200天移動平均綫及250天牛熊分界綫水平，截至今早收市，恒指暫升超過1200點，顯著跑贏外圍股市。投資者如看好恒指，或可留意恒指購22219，行使價21800點，實際槓桿12.8倍，引伸波幅30.2%，換股比率6500兌1，2023年02月27日到期。
隨著外圍衰退風險憂慮逐步積聚，通關憧憬等好消息亦逐一兌現，市場或仍觀望經濟數據會否如市場預期樂觀，令投資者憂慮港股升勢能否持續。上日輪場資金於指數淡倉逐步累積，根據花旗認股證網站樂觀/悲觀情緒資金流顯示，截至1月4日，過去5日輪證悲觀情緒資金流從1.53億增至5.48億元，累計有12.84億元，而悲觀情緒資金佔比從52%增至上日的92%。再看恒指波幅指數亦從去年10月高位約45水平回落超過2成至30水平之下，投資者短期如看淡指數，想趁高位開淡倉，或可留意恒指沽23225，行使價19200點，實際槓桿20.2倍，引伸波幅33.4%，換股比率8000兌1，2023年02月27日到期。
早前，市場憂慮騰訊（0700）股東在獲得美團（3690）股份派息後或導致美團面臨沽售壓力。騰訊今日（5日）除净，美團股價今早未見明顯沽壓，隨大市造好，最多曾升近8%見195元高位，逼近去年6月-7月的橫行區間，低位反彈超過6成。如認爲沽售美團的利淡消息已反映於當前股價中，而又繼續看好美團股價，或可留意美團購11089，行使價230.19元，實際槓桿4.5倍，引伸波幅59.7%，換股比率100兌1，2023年06月06日到期。
但市場上亦有投資者考慮國内通關利好消息基本反映於股價中，憂慮農曆新年假期臨近，春運高峰或有機會令疫情反覆，輪場資金上日（4日）積極部署美團淡倉，根據花旗認股證網站樂觀/悲觀情緒資金流顯示，上日美團輪證悲觀情緒資金佔比76%。投資者如看淡，則可留意美團沽29681，行使價148.78元，實際槓桿5.5倍，引伸波幅69.6%，換股比率100兌1，2023年03月30日到期。
市場對聯儲局加息預期下降，美國三大指數反彈。今日（24日）亞太區股市亦普遍造好，但恒指卻裂口急挫，暫低見15142點，最多跌1068點（約6.6%），為2009見4月底以來的低位。 恒指波幅指數（VHSI）一度飆升至43水平，對上一次此現象出現於今年3月15日，當日恒指中段急跌約6.6%後，次日連彈2日，累計升幅超過16%。投資者如想趁低搏恒指反彈，或可留意恒指購26065，行使價17000點，實際槓桿7.8倍，引伸波幅31.4%，換股比率7800兌1，2023年03月30日到期；如繼續看淡，或可留意恒指沽26702，行使價15500點，實際槓桿4.9倍，引伸波幅33.7%，換股比率6000兌1，2023年04月27日到期。
科網股領跌拖累大市向下，美團（3690）今日（24日）曾跌近一成半，跌穿4月低位約130元位置，股價逼近120元整數關口水平，距離3月份底部103.5元還有約16%的距離，表現相對ATM中其他2隻科網股更為硬净。值得留意的是，截至上周五（21日），美團連續8日錄得北水净流入。投資者如繼續看好美團又想趁低搏反彈，或可留意美團購27016，行使價160.1元，實際槓桿3.9倍，引伸波幅62.1%，換股比率100兌1，2023年05月30日到期；如看淡，或可留意美團沽26791，行使價110元，實際槓桿2.7倍，引伸波幅69.6%，換股比率50兌1，2023年04月27日到期。
至於阿里（9988），今早（24日）同樣大陰燭下挫，日内暫低見61.35元，最多暫跌近12%，股價再創港交所上市以來新低，但今日成交顯著回升，半日成交額已超過60億。 投資者如繼續看好阿里，或可候低留意阿里購25836，行使價80.05元，實際槓桿3.7倍，引伸波幅57.8%，換股比率100兌1，2023年06月29日到期；如看淡，或可留意阿里沽25246，行使價50.45元，實際槓桿3倍，引伸波幅69%，換股比率10兌1，2023年3月30日到期。