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美聯儲議息前夕,同時適逢内地五一黃金周長假,港股交投淡靜,上日(2日)大市成交金額約755億,為去年12月21日以來最低。走勢方面,恒指仍未擺脫上落爭持的局面,近期上下波幅區間介乎約19500至20300點之間,今早(3日)隨外圍低開近250點失守250天綫。截至上日,恒指牛證重貨區位於19500至19599點,熊證重貨區則位於20300至20399點,整體恒指牛熊街貨比例約54:46。議息前夕及成交疏落之下,大市上落波幅或傾向波動,投資者或可考慮部署較遠收回距離的牛熊證,控制收回風險, 投資者如看好恒指,或可留意恒指牛58112,收回價19250點,槓桿比率42.6 倍,換股比率10000 兌 1,2024年11月28日到期;如看淡,或可留意恒指熊61446,收回價20500點,槓桿比率18.8 倍,換股比率10000 兌 1,2024年04月29日到期。
滙豐(0005)首季度業績表現勝市場預期,稅前利潤同比增長逾200%,並宣布派發首季股息及最多20億美元股份回購計劃。股價上日午後抽升突破上月高位,重返2月至3月初水平,今早走勢則以整固爲主。上日輪場滙豐好倉資金流入約500萬元,淡倉流入約300萬元。 投資者如看好滙豐,或可留意滙豐購12404,行使價65.88元,實際槓桿13.2 倍,換股比率10 兌 1,2023年07月28日到期;如看淡,或可留意滙豐沽12406,行使價50元,實際槓桿12.8 倍,換股比率10 兌 1,2023年07月28日到期。
科網股走勢偏軟,阿里(9988)今早下試80元水平,曾跌逾3%,日内低位暫見79.7元,逼近3月低位約78元。根據CitiFirst®樂觀/悲觀情緒資金流專頁輪證數據,截至上日,阿里5天累計樂觀/悲觀資金比例約75:25,合計樂觀資金流逾1億。 投資者如看好阿里,或可留意阿里購23990,行使價95元,實際槓桿6.6 倍,換股比率100 兌 1,2023年09月29日到期;如看淡,或可留意阿里沽26680,行使價62.88元,實際槓桿10.3 倍,換股比率50 兌 1,2023年09月28日到期。
周二(25日)恒指弱勢依舊連跌三天,並且失守了250天綫,日内低位曾逼近19500點,若進一步向下觀望,恒指下一尚未回補的上升裂口位於3月21至22日,裂口區間在約19200至19400點水平。而參考恒指牛熊證街貨分佈,截至上日牛熊街貨比例為61.1:38.9,今日(26日)大市從低位19520點展開反彈,一度重上250天綫約19700點水平之上。 投資者如看好恒指,或可留意恒指購29262,行使價21000點,實際槓桿19.5 倍,換股比率7000 兌 1,2023年06月29日到期;但參考上日恒指牛熊證街貨分佈,20300至20399點收回區間熊證獲顯著加倉,相關對冲期指合約張數逾600張,投資者如繼續看淡,或可留意恒指沽11290,行使價18600點,實際槓桿14.1 倍,換股比率8800 兌 1,2023年06月29日到期。
科網股表現疲軟,截至上日恒科指及阿里巴巴(9988)皆連續6日收跌,阿里6日累計跌幅接近12%,股價回補3月28至29日的大型上升裂口。今日股價低位暫見81.25元,之後隨大市收窄跌幅,日内高位曾升穿84元。 投資者如看好阿里,或可留意阿里購23990,行使價95元,實際槓桿5.6倍,換股比率100 兌 1,2023年09月29日到期;如看淡,或可留意阿里沽26680,行使價62.88元,實際槓桿5倍,換股比率50 兌 1,2023年09月28日到期。
美團(3690)周二未能於50天綫站穩,走勢顯著受壓,日内最多曾跌近6%至129.5元,股價暫仍然位於自2月中至今形成的上落區間約125至145元。今日隨大市反彈,高位暫報135.7元。整體技術走勢上,美團上落波幅有逐漸收窄之勢,股價向三角形中綫約135元位置靠攏,方向待變。上日輪場美團好倉資金流入逾1100萬元,樂觀/悲觀比例為73:27。 投資者如看好美團,或可留意美團牛54122,收回價120元,槓桿比率6.6 倍,換股比率500 兌 1,2024年02月01日到期;如看淡,或可留意美團熊59988,收回價147元,槓桿比率8.7 倍,換股比率500 兌 1,2024年01月02日到期。
恒指上日(29日)在科網股的帶動下重返兩萬點關之上,一舉跳空至重合的20及250天綫上方。今早(30日)升勢見放緩,日内暫於20000-20200點位置附近反復上落,截至上日,恒指牛熊證街貨分佈比例為57.5:42.5。 投資者如繼續看好恒指,或可留意恒指牛57936,收回價19500點,槓桿比率31.2 倍,換股比率10000 兌 1,2024年11月28日到期;如看淡,或可留意恒指熊55765,收回價20500點,槓桿比率49.5 倍,換股比率10000 兌 1,2024年11月28日到期。
阿里(9988)上日為升市領頭羊,集團將重組6個主要業務部門,旗下業務在準備就緒後或可望尋求獨立上市及融資。股價上日裂口上揚試探50天綫約96元水平,日内於該水平爭持良久,今日亦再次試探該水平。 投資者如看好阿里,或可留意阿里購13554,行使價128.98元,實際槓桿6.8 倍,換股比率50 兌 1,2023年07月28日到期;如看淡,或可留意市場上最高槓桿的阿里熊54883,收回價98.6元,槓桿比率22.5 倍,換股比率100 兌 1,2023年12月01日到期。
快手(1024)公布截至去年12月底止全年業績,按非國際財務報告準則(non-IFRS)計的經調整淨虧損收窄至57.51億元,包括電商交易總額、用户規模及廣告收入在内的多項第四季數據創新高,股價今日一度升逾一成,不過日内升幅持續收窄。投資者如看好快手,或可留意快手購25372,行使價65.85元,實際槓桿3 倍,換股比率100 兌 1,2023年12月28日到期。
中石油(857)去年純利按年升62%,末期股息按年增近1.3倍,股價今日午後抽升,日内曾升約7.6%,見2019年5月以來新高。如繼續對中石油看高一綫,或可留意中油購14600,行使價4.99元,實際槓桿7.4 倍,換股比率1 兌 1,2023年09月28日到期。
周三晚,瑞信債券的一年期信貸違約掉期(CDS)飈升至過千點子,顯示投資者對其前景相當憂慮。瑞信ADR美股曾跌超過3成,但其後獲瑞士央行支持後跌幅收窄至不足13.9%。受事件影響,恒指夜期急插,港股周四(16日)承接外圍低開,重磅金融股拖累指數一度跌逾430點,曾見19109點低位。瑞士央行擬向瑞信提供最多500億瑞郎借款的消息傳出後,市場恐慌情緒略舒緩,指數跌幅一度收窄,但整體仍於19200點附近水平窄幅整固,100天綫得而復失。
儘管外圍及港股大市回落,美團(3690)周四股價表現硬净,中段最多曾跌近2%見124.2元低位後隨即反彈,一度轉升2.2%重新逼近130元水平。回顧2023年以來,美團股價自今年高位195.6元回吐超過35%至上周五(3月10日)見今年低位122.1元,跌浪長達3個月,重返去年10月下旬附近低位,本周似乎暫見喘定。輪場資金上日以樂觀情緒資金較多,佔比接近七成,認購證街貨佔比更高達90%。投資者如看好美團,或可留意美團購14245,行使價140.1點,實際槓桿6 倍,換股比率100 兌 1,2023年06月29日到期;如看淡,或可留意美團沽28840,行使價122.78點,實際槓桿3.9 倍,換股比率100 兌 1,2023年07月28日到期。
螞蟻集團宣布近日與榮耀終端有限公司達成戰略合作,雙方將在數字化經營、支付創新、安全科技、數字金融、ESG可持續發展五大領域展開全面開放合作。阿里(9988)周二(14日)一度跌穿80元心理關口,但暫時可以喘定,連續5個交易日於此水平窄幅整固。投資者如看好阿里,或可趁低留意阿里購11679,行使價108.1元,實際槓桿8.3 倍,換股比率50 兌 1,2023年06月29日到期;相反,如看淡,或可留意阿里沽26680,行使價62.88元,實際槓桿4.1 倍,換股比率50 兌 1,2023年09月28日到期。
恒指近日走勢反復向下,整體趨勢受壓,與下方250天綫約20000點水平距離逐漸拉近,逼近1月初水平,自高位回調逾2000點。 投資者如看好恒指,或可留意恒指購29261,行使價21500點,實際槓桿12.6 倍,換股比率6500 兌 1,2023年06月29日到期;如看淡,或可留意恒指沽11290,行使價18600點,實際槓桿9.3 倍,換股比率8800 兌 1,2023年06月29日到期。
阿里(9988)今日即將公佈第三季度業績,股價近期逼近250天牛熊分界綫水平,股價自上周五再次跌穿百元關,暫時連跌4日。隨著大市逐步喘定,阿里今日亦見止跌回升,最多曾升3.6%,一度重返96元之上。而根據CitiFirst®樂觀/悲觀情緒資金流專業數據,本周輪場樂觀資金流顯著增加,在21至22日分別有接近8成及9成輪證資金為樂觀資金。 投資者如看好阿里,或可留意阿里購29943,行使價118.98元,實際槓桿6.6 倍,換股比率50 兌 1,2023年06月29日到期;如看淡,或可留意阿里沽29682,行使價84.95元,實際槓桿3.6 倍,換股比率100 兌 1,2023年08月30日到期。
百度(9888)上日收市後公佈第四季業績勝市場預期並宣佈計劃進行最多50億美元股份回購。但其後有日媒報道指中國禁止科技巨頭向客戶提供ChatGPT服務。百度股價今早低開近3%,不過開市後迅速獲承接急彈,中段一度轉跌為升。 投資者如看好百度,或可留意百度牛52941,收回價128元,槓桿比率8.7 倍,換股比率500 兌 1,2023年12月28日到期;如看淡,或可留意百度熊53644,收回價155元,槓桿比率7.5 倍,換股比率500 兌 1,2023年12月01日到期。
恒指連日於21000點水平好淡爭持,上日(13日)低開280點,開市後跌幅即擴大至390點見20799點,逼近上月初上升裂口底部,其後跌幅於日内逐步收窄,21000點水平失而復得。今早(14日)延續整固形態,續於21000點水平附近徘徊。截至上日,恒指牛證重貨區位於20500至20800點區間,熊證重貨區則集中於21800至22100點區間。 投資者如看好恒指,或可留意恒指牛69687,收回價20500點,槓桿比率26 倍,換股比率10000 兌 1,2025年12月30日到期;如看淡,或可留意恒指熊52151,收回價22000點,槓桿比率24 倍,換股比率10000 兌 1,2025年12月30日到期。
阿里(9988)連日受制10天綫,上日開市後最多跌3.3%,之後在日内低位100.7元位置獲得承接隨大市反彈,收市股價接近追平,暫守100元關。今早於103元附近窄幅上落。根據CitiFirst®網站樂觀/悲觀情緒資金流資訊,阿里過去5日(2月7至13日)樂觀資金流合計約1.4億,資金樂觀/悲觀比例接近6:4。 投資者如看好阿里,短綫部署或可留意阿里購29943,行使價118.98元,實際槓桿5.5 倍,換股比率50 兌 1,2023年06月29日到期;長綫部署則可留意阿里購13254,行使價138.98元,實際槓桿3 倍,換股比率100 兌 1,2024年06月27日到期; 或可留意阿里牛51609,收回價96.88元,槓桿比率10.1 倍,換股比率100 兌 1,2023年12月28日到期。
中移動(941)自去年11月展開升浪以來,走勢一頂高於一頂,近日走勢沿10天綫位置整固,在最近大市回調之際股價跌幅相對較少,逆市企穩。股價上日收報57元,近期高位則在57.5元。 投資者如看好中移,或可留意中移購25026,行使價60.65元,實際槓桿15.8 倍,換股比率10 兌 1,2023年04月27日到期;或可留意中移牛52149,收回價51.38元,槓桿比率11.4 倍,換股比率100 兌 1,2023年12月28日到期。
美國10月份通脹低過預期,市場憧憬聯儲局將放慢加息步伐,恒指上周五(11日)隨外圍高開過千點,午後越升越有,重返17300點以上,收報17325點,全日升1244點,大市成交金額約1826億。另外據報内地公佈優化防控措施及内房支持政策,恒指今早(14日)延續升勢繼續向好,全日高開高走,中段升幅一度擴大至685點,一度重返18000點關口之上,之後升勢略爲放緩。 投資者如看好恒指,或可留意恒指購26330,行使價19500點,實際槓桿7.8倍,引伸波幅29.3%,換股比率6500兌1,2023年04月27日到期;如看淡,或可留意恒指沽26702,行使價15500點,實際槓桿7.2倍,引伸波幅33.3%,換股比率6000兌1,2023年04月27日到期。
内地公佈優化新冠肺炎疫情防控措施,並對入境人員將「7+3」調整為「5+3」,市場或憧憬防控措施放寬或對友邦(1299)保險業務增長有正面影響,友邦上周五(11日)隨大市裂口高開逾5%重返70元大關之上,收報73.05元,全日升8.8%。今早(14日)股價繼續走高,一度升逾5.6%,突破200天綫。回顧自11月以來表現强勢,相比10月底低位反彈近35%。投資者如看好友邦,或可留意友邦購17847,行使價95元,實際槓桿5倍,引伸波幅33.9%,換股比率50兌1,2023年12月28日到期;如看淡,或可留意友邦沽25375,行使價58.88元,實際槓桿7.6倍,引伸波幅40.4%,換股比率10兌1,2023年03月30日到期。
阿里(9988)雙11購物節正式拉開帷幕,上周五(11日)股價一改頹勢高開高走,日内升幅一度高達13.4%,升穿20天移動平均綫及70元大關,收報70.8元,全日升12.4%。今早(14日)雖能隨著大市反彈,中段一度考驗70元整數關口支持位。投資者如看好阿里,或可留意阿里購25836,行使價80.05元,實際槓桿3.4倍,引伸波幅58.5%,換股比率100兌1,2023年06月29日到期;如看淡,或可留意阿里沽27928,行使價60.13元,實際槓桿3.1倍,引伸波幅64.7%,換股比率50兌1,2023年04月27日到期。
港股11月迎來開門紅,總結上周大市表現,恒指上周一(10月31日)見低位約14600點後,11月開始展開反彈,上周四(11月3日)稍作調整後,上周五(11月4日)重返16000點關及20天綫之上,日内一度升近1200點,一周升約1300點。今早(11月7日)延續升勢進一步向上,日内高位暫時曾觸及16821點。 投資者如繼續看好恒指,或可留意恒指購26330,行使價19500點,實際槓桿8.4倍,引伸波幅30%,換股比率6500兌1,2023年04月27日到期;如看淡,或可留意恒指沽27260,行使價14000點,實際槓桿6.8倍,引伸波幅35.8%,換股比率5500兌1,2023年04月27日到期。
阿里(9988)上周五(11月4日)顯著反彈,成恒指領漲股首位,日内一度升約21%見日内高位76.2元,雖然其後升幅顯著收窄,但全日仍逾一成。不過今日表現則落後於大市,低開之後一度跌近5.2%,曾見低位66.3元後逐步回升,暫於70元整數關口水平附近爭持。 投資者如看好阿里,或可留意阿里購25836,行使價80.05元,實際槓桿3.5倍,引伸波幅58.9%,換股比率100兌1,2023年06月29日到期;如看淡,或可留意阿里沽26680,行使價62.88元,實際槓桿1.9倍,引伸波幅62.4%,換股比率50兌1,2023年09月28日到期。
而另一隻科網股騰訊(0700),其股價10月下旬連續多日於約200元水平獲承接,上周走勢轉好,MACD指標亦現黃金交叉,上周五(11月4日)重返20天綫之上,為9月上旬以來首次。 投資者如看好騰訊,或可留意騰訊購26676,行使價298.2元,實際槓桿6.2倍,引伸波幅46%,換股比率100兌1,2023年03月30日到期;如看淡,或可留意騰訊沽27071,行使價180.88元,實際槓桿2.7倍,引伸波幅48.7%,換股比率100兌1,2023年12月28日到期。
市場對聯儲局加息預期下降,美國三大指數反彈。今日(24日)亞太區股市亦普遍造好,但恒指卻裂口急挫,暫低見15142點,最多跌1068點(約6.6%),為2009見4月底以來的低位。 恒指波幅指數(VHSI)一度飆升至43水平,對上一次此現象出現於今年3月15日,當日恒指中段急跌約6.6%後,次日連彈2日,累計升幅超過16%。投資者如想趁低搏恒指反彈,或可留意恒指購26065,行使價17000點,實際槓桿7.8倍,引伸波幅31.4%,換股比率7800兌1,2023年03月30日到期;如繼續看淡,或可留意恒指沽26702,行使價15500點,實際槓桿4.9倍,引伸波幅33.7%,換股比率6000兌1,2023年04月27日到期。
科網股領跌拖累大市向下,美團(3690)今日(24日)曾跌近一成半,跌穿4月低位約130元位置,股價逼近120元整數關口水平,距離3月份底部103.5元還有約16%的距離,表現相對ATM中其他2隻科網股更為硬净。值得留意的是,截至上周五(21日),美團連續8日錄得北水净流入。投資者如繼續看好美團又想趁低搏反彈,或可留意美團購27016,行使價160.1元,實際槓桿3.9倍,引伸波幅62.1%,換股比率100兌1,2023年05月30日到期;如看淡,或可留意美團沽26791,行使價110元,實際槓桿2.7倍,引伸波幅69.6%,換股比率50兌1,2023年04月27日到期。
至於阿里(9988),今早(24日)同樣大陰燭下挫,日内暫低見61.35元,最多暫跌近12%,股價再創港交所上市以來新低,但今日成交顯著回升,半日成交額已超過60億。 投資者如繼續看好阿里,或可候低留意阿里購25836,行使價80.05元,實際槓桿3.7倍,引伸波幅57.8%,換股比率100兌1,2023年06月29日到期;如看淡,或可留意阿里沽25246,行使價50.45元,實際槓桿3倍,引伸波幅69%,換股比率10兌1,2023年3月30日到期。