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復活節假期前夕,港股窄幅整固,恒生指數本周持續於21500點附近上落,成交額亦有所回落,上日全日成交僅約1000億元,而今日半日成交亦不足500億,截至中午收市,僅升79點,報21454點。科技股走勢分化,其中快手(1024)上日(13日)升幅最為搶眼,為貢獻科指點數最多個股,相反阿里巴巴(9988)則全日窄幅整固,而今日更要逆市下挫3.6%。
再有消息傳出,12隻中概股再被美國證交會納入「預定除牌名單」,被除牌憂慮仍未消除。繼上周芒格旗下Daily Journal大幅減持阿里的消息後,今日據報中紀委直接調查螞蟻集團,一連串消息或令阿里股價持續承壓。截至上日(13日)收市,阿里本周連續3日收於百元關口以下,今早更要逆市跌3.6%,中午收報98.5元。投資者如對後市看淡,或可留意阿里沽11432,行使價85元,實際槓桿2.7倍,引伸波幅66.5%,換股比率50兌1,2022年09月29日到期。相反,想趁低吸納的話,亦可留意阿里購25833,行使價122.1元,實際槓桿6.4倍,引伸波幅54.2%,換股比率100兌1,2022年07月28日到期。
日前內地重啟遊戲版號審批,45款網遊獲批,雖然沒有包括騰訊(0700)、網易(9999)及嗶哩嗶哩(9626)旗下遊戲,但市場仍普遍認為這或意味著互聯網行業監管出現轉捩點。而繼周二一眾網游股帶領大市造好後,嗶哩嗶哩上日低開逾8%,其後跌幅持續收窄,今日早段更反彈近2%。投資者如想繼續趁低部署好倉,或可留意嗶哩購22302,行使價308元,實際槓桿1.7倍,引伸波幅103.9%,換股比率500兌1,2023年09月28日到期。
另外,同屬視頻股的快手近期走勢則與嗶哩嗶哩不同,其股價近期積弱,周二曾一度跌逾12%,見五連跌,五日累計跌逾23%,更見3月15日以來低位,但上日股價反彈飆升,跑贏大市,今日承接上日升勢再升逾1%,中午收報64.75元。截至周三,從過去5日輪證資金流來看,其過去5日樂觀情緒資金流佔比近八成,累積資金流高達5680萬元。投資者如傾向部署反彈,或可留意快手購19450,行使價85元,實際槓桿3.6倍,引伸波幅77%,換股比率100兌1,2022年09月29日到期。
港股上日(23日)承接外圍高開高走,恒指突破22000點大關,更一度高見22423點,收復大部分三月以來大震盪之失地,雖尾市升幅稍為收窄,但仍收升264點,報22154點,成交額則攀升至1773億元。科指上日同樣續升,一度升近5%至高見4884點,ATM三隻科技股龍頭早段見強勁升勢,帶領大市及整體科技股氣氛造好,其中阿里巴巴(9988)為全日貢獻恒指及科指點數最多個股。
阿里巴巴日前宣布中概股歷來最大規劃回購,大幅上調回購總額至250億美元,加上集團發布言論指,阿里現價暫未能公允地反映其穩健財務表現及增長計劃所帶來的價值。或受消息影響,阿里由周一(21日)起股價大逆轉,周二(22日)更飆升逾11%,重上100元水平。或再受中概股在美上市審計風波的消息影響,阿里上日進一步攀升,據消息指中證監已要求包括阿里巴巴、百度(9888)和京東(9618)在內的部分在美上市公司,預備披露更多審計資訊,以應付美國監管機構要求。阿里上日見三連升,升穿50天移動平均線,並重見1個月高位,最高見119.4元,升逾8%,午後高位徘徊,收市報117.6元,全日升6.7%。投資者如看好其走勢,或可留意阿里購22720,行使價140元,實際槓桿3.4倍,引伸波幅57.6%,換股比率100兌1,2022年12月28日到期。相反如看淡,或可留意阿里沽26800,行使價93.9元,實際槓桿3.9倍,引伸波幅71.9%,換股比率50兌1,2022年06月28日到期。
騰訊上日收市後公布業績,全年收入按年增16%至約5601億元人民幣,純利更按年大增逾四成至約2248億元,同時宣布派末期息每股1.6元。或因現有遊戲收入下降及季節性因素拖累內地遊戲表現,其上季收入按年跌12%,但國際市場遊戲收入則增長逾一成半,而上季未成年人總時長按年大減88%,集團預計未成年人保護措施影響將於今年下半年全面消化。另外亦有市場數據指,2月騰訊旗下手遊《王者榮耀》在全球吸金逾2億美元,重回全球手遊暢銷榜首,當中來自中國iOS市場的收入佔逾九成半,或能重新推動其收入增長。騰訊上日績前曾一度升4%至10天高位,升穿400元關口及20天移動平均線,午後隨大市回吐接近全部升幅,收報389元,微升0.26%。截至上日(23日)的資金流向可見,北水連續3日淨買入騰訊,上日更見淨流入金額達至12億。另外,其樂悲觀資金流情緒比例參半,但輪場上大部分街貨比例仍集中於認購證及牛證。投資者若對後市看好,或可留意騰訊購25837,行使價506.88元,實際槓桿7.3倍,引伸波幅46.6%,換股比率100兌1,2022年07月28日到期。如看淡,或可留意騰訊沽29814,行使價320元,實際槓桿3.8倍,引伸波幅51.6%,換股比率100兌1,2022年09月29日到期。
儘管市場仍然充斥不明朗因素。恒指今早(23日)反彈高開近100點,科指則升逾1%,市場聚焦關注科技股發展走勢,其中美團(3690)暫時為貢獻恒指及科指點數最多個股,帶領大市高開高走。
發改委上周發文提及引導外賣平台下調餐飲業商戶服務費標準,市場憂慮消息或會影響平台經濟,美團上周五(18日)股價應聲急瀉逾一成半。內地官媒周三釐清對外賣行業引導並非「命令」,下調服務費或會影響平台經濟的估值邏輯,但並不意味著平台企業前景堪憂。或受消息帶動,美團周三走勢隨即逆轉,三連跌後轉飆升逾7%,高見184.5元。從市場資金流向來看,截至本周二,北水連續兩日淨買入美團,周一(21日)單日淨流入金額更超過32億,而輪場資金可見投資者普遍部署反彈,樂觀情緒資金流比例更達至九成。如投資者想短線部署好倉,或可留意美團購24518,行使價230元,實際槓桿5.2倍,引伸波幅59.2%,換股比率100兌1,2022年07月04日到期。如看淡,或可留意美團沽26580,行使價160元,實際槓桿2.4倍,引伸波幅64.1%,換股比率100兌1,2022年09月29日到期。
另外,近日內地監管互聯網行業憂慮再起,周二亦有消息傳內地或將要求機構對阿里巴巴(9988)有份持股的螞蟻集團相關業務排查,但見投資者或開始逐漸消化相關消息。科技股周三暫見反彈,阿里股價靠穩造好,暫升逾1%,加上踏入業績高峰期,阿里巴巴將於本周四(24日)公佈業績。投資者如看好其業績公布結果,或可留意阿里購23855,行使價115.2元,實際槓桿4.8倍,引伸波幅56.8%,換股比率100兌1,2022年06月06日到期。投資者如看淡,或可留意阿里沽18025,行使價98.88元,實際槓桿3.9倍,引伸波幅57.9%,換股比率50兌1,2022年06月29日到期。
地緣局勢稍為緩和,美股周二晚(15日)應聲反彈,恒指今早(16日)承接外圍高開262點,升穿100天移動平均線。科技股造好,恒生科技指數更一度升逾2%。
隨著外圍不確定性因素逐漸減少,資金關注板塊或再現輪動,或有機會重新關注早前跌幅較爲顯著的科技股板塊。而在ATM三隻科技股龍頭當中,估值相對較低的阿里巴巴(9988)或重見資金追捧。而阿里巴巴(9988)今早(16日)亦於一眾科網股中跑出,中段一度升接近4%,升穿50天移動平均線,升勢確實較騰訊及美團更爲凌厲,成爲為貢獻恒指點數最多的個股。日前軟銀減持巴巴疑慮暫時釋除,橋水基金最新申報的美股季度持倉更見到其將資金轉投中資電商股並增持阿里巴巴。阿里將於下周四(2月24日)公佈業績,投資者如想趁業績前部署好倉,或可留意阿里購22437,行使價138.88元,實際槓桿4.7倍,引伸波幅44.9%,換股比率100兌1,2022年09月28日到期。相反,如對其業績或表現看淡,或可留意阿里沽16952,行使價106.88元,實際槓桿3.5倍,引伸波幅61.6%,換股比率50兌1,2022年06月29日到期。
除科網股外,舊經濟股近日備受追捧,一方面或因外圍局勢緊張令避險情緒升溫,資金亦從風險較高的科技股板塊轉為投資防守性較高的傳統經濟股,而另一方面,國内穩增長目標亦令資金重新關注傳統經濟板塊,而中移動(0941)近日亦見較多資金關注。
中移動周二(15日)公布再回購近233萬股,涉資1.27億港元。中移動股價連日回吐後,周三轉跌為升,曾升近2%。轉看資金流向,截至周二收市,北水雖已連續4日淨流出中移動,但淨流出金額逐步減少。而輪場資金部署資金,上日中移動為十大好倉流入股份之一,樂觀情緒資金佔比接近7成。投資者如想趁低部署好倉,或可留意中移購24033,行使價65元,實際槓桿7.9倍,引伸波幅31.5%,換股比率10兌1,2022年09月29日到期。
另外,恒指將於本周五(18日)收市後公布季檢結果,市場憧憬農夫山泉(9633)或有望染藍,今日中段曾一度飆升至5天高位。投資者如看好,或可留意農泉購23249,行使價53.58元,實際槓桿3.3倍,引伸波幅58.2%,換股比率50兌1,2022年10月28日到期。
美股周二晚(8日)三大指數造好,中概股升勢更爲搶眼。而恒指周三(9日)承接外圍高開高開近400點,一度升穿100天移動平均線,見10天高位,到收市升幅仍能維持在500點,報24830點,成交額增至超過1400億元。連續多日承壓的科技股今日表現强勁,而貢獻恒指點數前三個股為阿里巴巴、美團與騰訊,合共為恒指貢獻超過200點的升幅。
阿里巴巴(9988)上周五(4日)公佈額外註冊10億份ADS(美股存托股份),引市場猜測或與阿里巴巴主要股東軟銀集團部署沽貨有關,股價連日受壓。軟銀集團於昨日(8日)於業績會議表示未有即時沽貨意願,但會保留選項,更發表聲明表示阿里ADS與集團無關。阿里(9988)周三裂口高開6%,最高曾見119.4元,收復過去兩日跌市大部份失地。投資者如看好,或可留意阿里購22437,行使價138.88元,實際槓桿4.2倍,引伸波幅53.4%,換股比率100兌1,2022年09月28日到期。相反看淡,或可留意阿里沽16952,行使價106.88元,實際槓桿3.5倍,引伸波幅57.5%,換股比率50兌1,2022年06月29日到期。
美團(3690)今早(9日)高開高走,最高見232.2元,突破兩週高位,升穿50天移動平均線,收報229.2元,升約3.7%。觀察港股通資金流向,截至今日收市,北水連續2日流入美團。投資者如看好後市,或可留意美團購23432,行使價280元,實際槓桿5倍,引伸波幅57.9%,換股比率100兌1,2022年06月29日到期。相反看淡,或可留意美團沽16946,行使價176.78元,實際槓桿3.9倍,引伸波幅60.6%,換股比率100兌1,2022年06月29日到期。
再看騰訊(0700)方面的消息,報道指騰訊入股蘭州牛肉麵知名品牌馬記永,註冊資本增約13.48%,經營範圍新增互聯網銷售、化妝品批發、化妝品零售及個人衛生用品銷售等。騰訊今早同樣造好,升逾2%,收報482.8元。如短綫繼續看好,或可留意騰訊購21887,行使價563.107元,實際槓桿9.3倍,引伸波幅36.8%,換股比率97.087兌1,2022年05月30日到期。相反,投資者如看淡,或可留意騰訊沽21888,行使價392.039元,實際槓桿7.7倍,引伸波幅40.1%,換股比率97.087兌1,2022年05月30日到期。
港股今早(19日)表現反覆,高開117點後,升幅一度擴大至173點,但中午前要倒跌,午後暫時最多跌161點,一度失守兩萬四關口。科網股表現分化,阿里(9988)跌近2%,暫時為拖累恒指點數最多個股,而騰訊(0700)及京東(9618)則暫時可以跑贏大市。
據報,阿里(9988)旗下業務阿里雲被美國政府審查,包括審查阿里雲如何儲存美國人的個人信息和知識產權,及會否對美國國家安全帶來風險。阿里股價今早承壓,一度急跌1.7%,低見124.3元,之後反覆上落,午後暫時跌約2%,約123.8元。另有大行發表報告,考慮到阿里將繼續增加對商家的補貼,因此預期經調整EBITA將按年跌26%至451億人民幣。 目標價亦由209元下調至每股192元,維持「買入」評級。投資者如看淡,或可留意阿里沽16952,行使價106.88元,實際槓桿3.7倍,引伸波幅55.8%,換股比率50兌1,2022年06月29日到期。
截至上日(18日)收市,阿里股價已連跌4個交易日,投資者如想候低博反彈,或可留意阿里購21727,行使價150元,實際槓桿5.2倍,引伸波幅50.1%,換股比率50兌1,2022年06月29日到期。
騰訊(0700)今日先揚後挫,早上一度上揚1.2%至458元,但午後轉跌,暫時最多跌約0.6%,曾見450元低位。截至上日收市,股價亦連跌4天,累計跌幅接近6%。而近日騰訊回購股份動作頻密,投資者如認爲450元位置有支持,短綫想趁低博反彈,或可留意騰訊購20790,行使價520.5元,實際槓桿11.6倍,引伸波幅34.8%,換股比率100兌1,2022年04月06日到期。相反如看淡,則可留意騰訊沽18033,行使價399.8元,實際槓桿10.1倍,引伸波幅38%,換股比率100兌1,2022年03月30日到期。
恒指本周繼續偏軟,周一失守二萬五千點關口之後,周二在一衆重磅科網股的拖累下再跌300點,收市報24652點,大市成交約1299億元。周三早段雖可高開65點,中段一度跌近百點,整體走勢仍偏軟,繼續於上日收市位附近爭持,截至周二收市,恒指連跌5個交易日,累計跌1062點。
阿里巴巴(9988)上周四(18日)公布的第三季度業績大遜市場預期令市場失望,股價翌日急跌逾10%失守160元關口支持位,雖然成交暢旺,仍不敵市場沽壓。截至周三(24日)早上收市,阿里股價已經連續6個交易日收跌,累計跌幅高達20.6%,見上市以來的新低。投資者如對阿里後市走勢看淡,或想用認沽證作對冲手上持倉部署,或可留意阿里沽28290,行使價112.88元,實際槓桿4倍,引伸波幅52.6%,換股比率50兌1,2022年04月28日到期。
但亦有大行發表報告指雖然對短期疲軟的消費情緒持謹慎態度,但仍然對阿新業務的巨大潛力充滿信心,維持「買入」評級,雖然目標價由204元降至196元,相比現時阿里的股價仍高出不少。投資者如想趁低搏反彈,或可反手留意投資者如看好,或可留意阿里購28390,行使價150.1元,實際槓桿6.8倍,引伸波幅49.8%,換股比率100兌1,2022年02月25日到期。
據報,美國與其他消費國聯手釋放戰略石油儲備,但力度未及市場預期。有分析表示,從總體上看,增加的供應量很小,遠遜市場預期。紐約期油價格昨日收市報78.5美元,升2.28%創兩周以來最大升幅。中石油(857)及中海油(883)周三(24日)逆市造好,中石油表現更爲出衆,最多曾升5.7%,而中海油早段最多亦曾升1.8%。
投資者如看好中石油(857)後市股價走勢,或可留意中油購26308,行使價4.21元,實際槓桿9.6倍,引伸波幅37.7%,換股比率1兌1,2022年02月25日到期。看好中海油(883),則可留意海油購27883,行使價9.88元,實際槓桿5.1倍,引伸波幅41.1%,換股比率5兌1,2022年09月29日到期。
恒指上日(16日)造好,午後開市更升至全日高位25747點,升356點尾段升幅收窄,最終以25714點收市, 全日升323點。大市成交金額1310億。但恒指今早(17日)未能承接上日升勢,低開後更一度跌近200點,低位見過25521點。
阿里將於明天(18日)公布截至今年9月底止三個月業績,綜合各大行預測數據,經調整EBITA中位數則為344.49億元,按年跌17.4%。大行普遍認爲阿里今季業績亮點不多,相信在國内對科網股的監管下,再加上電商競爭加劇、雲業務失大客等,市場或對阿里業績未有太大期望。投資者如看淡明天公佈之業績,或可留意阿里沽24790,行使價140元,實際槓桿5倍,引伸波幅48%,換股比率50兌1,2022年03月30日到期。
但從技術走勢上看,阿里(9988)上日能隨大市向上,並升穿20天移動平均線,見10日以來高位, 全日升2.3%,報165.2元。而回顧阿里10月以來的表現,自月初收復160元關口失地之後,股價持續於160-180元位置附近窄幅上落,50天綫位置似乎有支持。投資者如看好,或可留意阿里購11581,行使價178.98元,實際槓桿7倍,引伸波幅42.6%,換股比率50兌1,2022年02月25日到期。
同樣將於明天公佈業績的京東(9618),截至上日收市已連升5個交易日,累計升幅高達12%。而上日亦隨一衆科網股向好,收市更見全日高位以及6個月以來的高位,全日升0.7%,收報338元。本周五(19日)收市後,恒生指數服務公司將會公佈季檢結果,市場上「染藍」憧憬較高的候選股份名單當中亦包括京東在内。另外,早前雙十一促銷,京東累計下單金額再創新高,有3,491億元人民幣,較去年高28.6%。另外,今年雙十一是京東首次接受客戶以數字人民幣付款。截至11月11日已有超過10萬人使用數字人民幣付款。投資者如看好其業績,認爲業績或「染藍」憧憬成刺激其股價上升的亮點的話,或可留意京東購26413,行使價378.2元,實際槓桿6.8倍,引伸波幅45.7%,換股比率100兌1,2022年02月28日到期。但京東股價今早要隨大市回落,暫時中止5連升,中段曾跌超過2%,低位見過330.8元。投資者如看淡,或可留意京東沽29566,行使價279.8元,實際槓桿4.6倍,引伸波幅47.9%,換股比率100兌1,2022年04月28日到期。
恒指上日(19日)連續第二日收漲,全日升377點,收報25787點,突破50天綫,見 1個月高位,可惜大市成交未能配合,僅1206億。而昨日貢獻恒指升幅前三位個股有友邦(1299)、美團(3690)及小米(1810)。今早(20日)恒指繼續造好,全日高開287點,早上重上26200點,創逾1個月高位。
據報,阿里(9988)創辦人馬雲目前在西班牙進行環境相關的農業及技術考察,相信此是他一年多來首次出國考察。阿里(9988)今早高開4.7%,之後更一度飆升9.2%,逼近180元大關,並見1個月高位。回顧過去,阿里已連升4個交易日。以今早高位179.9元計算,10月至今累計升幅已超過26%,從年内低位135.3元反彈近33%。投資者如繼續看好,或可留意阿里購24347,行使價217元,實際槓桿4.9倍,引伸波幅43.8%,換股比率100兌1,2022年06月29日到期。相反如看淡,或可留意阿里沽24790,行使價140元,實際槓桿4.3倍,引伸波幅52.3%,換股比率50兌1,2022年03月30日到期。
據報,美團推出自營餐飲品牌「饞阿狸」並已申請註冊「饞阿狸」商標。美團(3690)上日隨大市向上,收報285.6元,升1.9%。今早(20日)亦繼續造好,高開1.5%衝上290元關口之餘更越升越有,逐步逼近300元大關。投資者如看好,或可留意美團購17951,行使價320.2元,實際槓桿7.4倍,引伸波幅48.3%,換股比率100兌1,2021年12月30日到期。但輪證資金流方面,上日悲觀情緒(買入認沽或熊證及賣出認購及牛證的資金流加總)佔72%。投資者如認爲美團短綫有下行壓力,或可留意美團沽28083,行使價228.68元,實際槓桿4.1倍,引伸波幅62.5%,換股比率100兌1,2022年02月25日到期。
日前雷軍表示,預計小米汽車於2024年上半年正式量產。小米汽車9月1日已在北京註冊,首個工廠落戶在北京。小米(1810)上日大升5.4%,報22.5元,升穿20天移動平均線並見10天高位,為表現第二好藍籌。投資者如看好,或可留意小米購27784,行使價25.05元,實際槓桿6.5倍,引伸波幅42.5%,換股比率10兌1,2022年02月25日到期。今早小米輕微高開0.7%,但升勢遜於騰訊、阿里、美團。投資者如看淡,或可留意小米沽26840,行使價19元,實際槓桿5倍,引伸波幅44.3%,換股比率5兌1,2022年03月30日到期。